by Calculated Risk on 12/06/2017 01:07:00 PM

Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year.  This is an update (I'll gather several more).

First a review of the previous five years ...

Here is a summary of forecasts for 2017. It is early (just nine months), but in 2017, new home sales will probably be around 615 thousand, and total housing starts will be around 1.200 to 1.210 million.  Brad Hunter (HomeAdvisor) appears very close on New Home sales, and Merrill Lynch and NAR appear close on starts.

Here is a summary of forecasts for 2016. In 2016, new home sales will probably be around 565 thousand, and total housing starts will be around 1.175 million.  Fannie Mae and Merrill Lynch were very close on New Home sales, and MetroStudy was close on starts.

Here is a summary of forecasts for 2015. In 2015, new home sales were 501 thousand, and total housing starts were 1.112 million.  Zillow, CoreLogic, and the MBA were right on with New Home sales, and CoreLogic, MetroStudy, MBA and Zillow were all correct on starts.

Here is a summary of forecasts for 2014. In 2014, new home sales were 437 thousand, and total housing starts were 1.003 million. No one was close on New Home sales (all way too optimistic), and Michelle Meyer (Merrill Lynch) and Fannie Mae were the closest on housing starts (about 10% too high). In 2014, many analysts underestimated the impact of higher mortgage rates and higher new home prices on new home sales and starts.

Here is a summary of forecasts for 2013. In 2013, new home sales were 429 thousand, and total housing starts were 925 thousand.  Barclays was the closest on New Home sales followed by David Crowe (NAHB).  Fannie Mae and the NAHB were the closest on housing starts.

The table below shows several forecasts for 2018:

From Fannie Mae: Housing Forecast: November 2017

From Freddie Mac: November 2017 Economic & Housing Market Forecas

From NAHB: NAHB’s housing and economic forecast

From NAR: Economic & Housing Outlook

Note: For comparison, new home sales in 2017 will probably be around 615 thousand, and total housing starts around 1.205 million.

Housing Forecasts for 2018
	New Home Sales (000s)	Single Family Starts (000s)	Total Starts (000s)	House Prices1
CoreLogic				4.2%6
Fannie Mae	651	905	1,250	5.1%2
Freddie Mac			1,300	5.7%2
HomeAdvisor5	653	981	1,320	4.0%
NAHB	656	911	1,255
NAR	700			5.0%3
Zillow				3.0%4
*** Still to come. 1Case-Shiller unless indicated otherwise 2FHFA Purchase-Only Index 3NAR Median Prices 4Zillow Home Prices 5Brad Hunter, chief economist, formerly of MetroStudy 6CoreLogic Index