by Calculated Risk on 1/31/2018 04:52:00 PM

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate increased to 1.24% in December, up from 1.12% in November. The serious delinquency rate is up from 1.20% in December 2016.

These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". 

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.

Click on graph for larger image

By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (4% of portfolio), 3.28% are seriously delinquent. For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (6% of portfolio), 6.55% are seriously delinquent, For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2017 (90% of portfolio), only 0.53% are seriously delinquent. So Fannie is still working through poor performing loans from the bubble years.

This increase in the delinquency rate was due to the hurricanes - no worries about the overall market - and we might see a further increase over the next month or so (These are serious delinquencies, so it takes three months late to be counted).

After the hurricane bump, maybe the rate will decline to 0.5 to 0.7 percent or so to a cycle bottom.

Note: Freddie Mac reported earlier.