by Calculated Risk on 1/11/2018 01:40:00 PM

From Bloomberg: Crude Oil Prices Are Up 49%, and It’s Not All Thanks to OPEC

The bottom line: A 49 percent surge in benchmark North American crude futures since late June, putting prices at a three-year high.
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"We expect inventories are going to build this year -- slightly,” said Michael Cohen, Barclays Head of Oil Markets Research, in an interview on Bloomberg TV. "You’re going to see a bunch of new crude supply coming on to the market this year from the U.S. So all in all, on a balanced basis, we don’t see the kind of shortage to bring us to $80 for a sustainable basis."

Click on graph for larger image

The first graph shows WTI and Brent spot oil prices from the EIA. (Prices today added).

According to Bloomberg, WTI is at $64.29 per barrel today, and Brent is at $69.66.

Prices really collapsed at the end of 2014 - and then rebounded a little - and then collapsed again at the end of 2015 and in early 2016.

Now, with the global economy stronger and less domestic production, oil prices are rising.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in WTI based on data from the EIA.

Six times since 1987, oil prices have increased 100% or more YoY.  And several times prices have almost fallen in half YoY.

Currently WTI is up about 19% year-over-year.