by Calculated Risk on 6/01/2018 03:25:00 PM

Based on a preliminary estimate from AutoData, light vehicle sales were at a 16.9 million SAAR in May.

That is up 1% year-over-year from April 2017, and down 1% from last month.


Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for May (red, light vehicle sales of 16.9 million SAAR  from AutoData).

This was below the consensus forecast for May.

Note that the increase in sales at the end of 2017 was due to buying following the hurricanes.

Sales will probably move sideways or decline in 2018 after setting new sales records in both 2015 and 2016.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate.

This is the lowest sales rate since last August.