by Calculated Risk on 12/20/2018 11:04:00 AM

From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: November Prepayment Activity Hits 10-Year Low as Refinances Fall and Housing Turnover Sees Seasonal Decline

• Prepayment activity fell 14 percent month-over-month and 29 percent year-over-year to its lowest level since November 2008

• Historically, prepayments were driven primarily by refinance activity but, more recently, the primary driver has become housing sales

• The last time the prepayment rate was this low – in the heat of the financial crisis – interest rates were above 6 percent and purchase lending had fallen by more than 50 percent in a 24-month span

• Delinquencies saw a slight seasonal increase in November, but remain 19 percent below last year’s level

• Serious delinquencies (90 or more days past due) also increased slightly for the month; now stand at 510,00

• Foreclosure starts fell by 11 percent month-over-month, with an estimated 45,200 starts in November

• A slight uptick in foreclosure inventory was offset by a month-over-month increase in the number of outstanding mortgages, resulting in a net decline in the national foreclosure rate

According to Black Knight's First Look report for November, the percent of loans delinquent increased 1.8% in November compared to October, and decreased 18.5% year-over-year.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased 0.2% in November and were down 22.0% over the last year.

Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 3.71% in November, up from 3.64% in October.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased slightly in November to 0.52% from 0.52% in October.

The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 399,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is down 69,000 properties year-over-year.

Black Knight: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process
	Nov 2018	Oct 2018	Nov 2017	Nov 2016
Delinquent	3.71%	3.64%	4.55%	4.46%
In Foreclosure	0.52%	0.52%	0.66%	0.98%
Number of properties:
Number of properties that are delinquent, but not in foreclosure:	1,925,000	1,884,000	2,324,000	2,263,000
Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory:	268,000	267,000	337,000	498,000
Total Properties	2,193,000	2,152,000	2,661,000	2,761,000