by Calculated Risk on 2/25/2019 06:12:00 PM

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in January was 0.70%, up slightly from 0.69% in December. Freddie's rate is down from 1.07% in January 2018.

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.

This is the lowest serious delinquency rate for Freddie Mac since December 2007.

These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". 

Click on graph for larger image

The increase in the delinquency rate in late 2017 and early 2018 was due to the hurricanes (These are serious delinquencies, so it took three months late to be counted).

I expect the delinquency rate to decline to a cycle bottom in the 0.5% to 0.7% range - but this is close to a bottom.

Note: Fannie Mae will report for January soon.