by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2019 08:41:00 AM

From the Chicago Fed: Index points to a pickup in economic growth in May

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to –0.05 in May from –0.48 in April. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from April, but only one of the four categories made a positive contribution to the index in May. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to –0.17 in May from –0.37 in April.
emphasis added

This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.

Click on graph for larger image.

This suggests economic activity was below the historical trend in May (using the three-month average).

According to the Chicago Fed:

The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.
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A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.