by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2019 10:38:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Rise in the Second Quarter of 2019

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.53 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the second quarter of 2019, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. The foreclosure inventory rate, the percentage of loans in the foreclosure process, was 0.90 percent last quarter - the lowest since the fourth quarter of 1995.

The delinquency rate was up 11 basis points from the first quarter of 2019 and 17 basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started in the second quarter rose by two basis points to 0.25 percent.

"The unemployment rate remains quite low, but the national mortgage delinquency rate in the second quarter rose from both the first quarter and one year ago. The economy is slowing, and this poses the risk of further increases in delinquency rates," said Marina Walsh, MBA's Vice President of Industry Analysis. "Across loan types, the FHA delinquency rate posted the largest variance, increasing 29 basis points from last quarter and 52 basis points from a year ago."

Added Walsh, "Heavy rains and flooding, extreme heat, and tornadoes in certain states during the spring, may have also contributed to the increase in the delinquency rate, as some borrowers likely faced disruption or hardship."
...
Compared to last quarter, the seasonally adjusted mortgage delinquency rate increased for all loans outstanding. By stage, the 30-day delinquency rate increased four basis points to 2.62 percent, the 60-day delinquency rate remained unchanged at 0.81 percent, and the 90-day delinquency bucket increased seven basis points to 1.10 percent.
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The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due, but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the second quarter was 0.90 percent, down two basis points from the first quarter of 2019 and 15 basis points lower than one year ago. This is the lowest foreclosure inventory rate since the fourth quarter of 1995.
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The serious delinquency rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was at 1.95 percent - a decrease of 1 basis point from last quarter and a decrease of 35 basis points from last year.
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The five states with the largest increases in their overall delinquency rate were affected by weather-related issues. This may have resulted in an increase in delinquencies over the previous quarter of the following magnitude: West Virginia (86 basis points), Mississippi (81 basis points), Alabama (73 basis points), Indiana (73 basis points), and New Mexico (65 basis points).
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due.  There was an increase in delinquencies in Q2 - probably due to weather - but the overall level is low.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process continues to decline, and is now at the lowest level since 1995.