by Calculated Risk on 10/17/2019 11:15:00 AM

From the Philly Fed: Current Manufacturing Indexes Suggest Growth in October

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, according to results from the October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's broad indicators remained positive, although their movements were mixed this month: The general activity and shipments indicators decreased from their readings last month, but the indicators for new orders and employment increased. The survey’s future activity indexes remained positive, suggesting continued optimism about growth for the next six months.

The diffusion index for current general activity fell 6 points this month to 5.6, after decreasing 5 points in September.
emphasis added

This was at the consensus forecast. Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through October), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through September) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through September (right axis).

These early reports suggest the ISM manufacturing index will probably be weak again in October.