by Calculated Risk on 6/02/2021 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 4.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 28, 2021. This week’s year-over-year results are being compared to the week of Memorial Day 2020.

... The Refinance Index decreased 5 percent from the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 2 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage applications decreased for the second week in a row, with the overall index reaching its lowest level since February 2020,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Tight housing inventory, obstacles to a faster rate of new construction, and rapidly rising home prices continue to hold back purchase activity. The government purchase index declined to its lowest level in over a year and has now decreased year-over-year for five straight weeks. Purchase applications were down almost 2 percent from a year ago, but that was compared to the week of Memorial Day 2020.”

Added Kan, “Refinance activity dropped for the second straight week, even as the 30-year fixed rate decreased slightly to 3.17 percent. Even though rates have been below 3.20 percent over the past month, they are still around 20-30 basis points higher than the record lows in late 2020.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) decreased to 3.17 percent from 3.18 percent, with points increasing to 0.39 from 0.35 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With low rates, the index remains elevated, but below recent levels since mortgage rates have moved up from the record lows.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 2% year-over-year unadjusted.

Note: The year ago comparisons for the unadjusted purchase index are now more difficult since purchase activity picked up in late May 2020.   Next week, the unadjusted comparison will be especially ugly (holiday week this year vs non-holiday week last year).

Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).