by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2021 05:32:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for April were released today. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: April 2021 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: No Sign of Slowing

Mortgage rates remain near historic lows, a demographic wave of households aging into prime homeownership years continues to swell, and despite showing some signs of bottoming, the number of available homes for sale remains historically small, particularly given the elevated demand for housing. Prices have skyrocketed as a result, and price growth continues to set new record highs. What’s more, despite sharply rising prices, demand for homes remains very strong. Bidding wars for the relatively few houses available remain common and homes are going under contract at an increasingly fast pace. Inventory upticks in recent weeks suggest that a respite from these red-hot market conditions may be starting to form. But a return to a balanced market remains a long way off, and there are few, if any, signs that home price appreciation will start to subside anytime soon.

Monthly and annual growth in May as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate from April and Mary 2020 in all three main indices. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the May S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, July 27.
emphasis added

The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 16.2% in May, up from 14.6% in April.

The Zillow forecast is for the 20-City index to be up 16.5% YoY in April from 14.9% in April, and for the 10-City index to increase to be up 16.1% YoY compared to 14.4% YoY in April.