by Calculated Risk on 2/16/2022 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 5.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 11, 2022.

... The Refinance Index decreased 9 percent from the previous week and was 54 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 7 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates increased across the board last week following the recent rise in Treasury yields, which have moved higher due to unrelenting inflationary pressures and increased market expectations of more aggressive policy moves by the Federal Reserve," said Joel Kan, MBA's Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. "The 30-year fixed rate saw the largest single-week increase since March 2020 and was above the 4 percent mark for the first time since 2019. Consistent with this period of higher mortgage rates, refinance applications fell 9 percent last week and stood at around half of last year’s pace. The refinance share of applications was also at its lowest level since July 2019."

Added Kan, “Purchase applications saw a modest decline over the week, with government purchase applications accounting for most of the decrease. Prospective buyers still face elevated sales prices in addition to higher mortgage rates. The heavier mix of conventional applications again contributed to another record average loan size at $453,000.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 4.05 percent from 3.83 percent, with points increasing to 0.45 from 0.40 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply over the last several months.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 7% year-over-year unadjusted.

Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).