by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2022 10:23:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing: Inventory will Tell the Tale

Brief excerpt:

The first question I’m always asked about housing is What will happen with house prices? and then When will House Price Growth Slow? The exact impact on prices is uncertain (although I tried to answer both questions in the above links), but I believe one thing is certain: inventory will tell the tale!

That is why I watch inventory closely. ...

This morning Altos Research released inventory data as of June 24th showing that current inventory is above the peak in 2021.
...
Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021, 2020 (milestone 3 above) and 2019 (milestone 4). The blue line is the year-over-year data, the red line is compared to two years ago, and dashed purple is compared to 2019.

Two years ago (in 2020) inventory was declining all year, so the two-year comparison will get easier all year.   Based on recent increases in inventory, my current estimate is inventory will be up compared to 2020 in Q3 of this year (in the next few months), and back to 2019 levels at the beginning of 2023.

Inventory will tell the tale!

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