by Calculated Risk on 12/23/2022 10:08:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 640 thousand.

The previous three months were revised down sharply.

Sales of new single‐family houses in November 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 640,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 5.8 percent above the revised October rate of 605,000, but is 15.3 percent below the November 2021 estimate of 756,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales are below pre-pandemic levels.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply decreased in November to 8.6 months from 9.3 months in October.

The all-time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.

This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of November was 461,000. This represents a supply of 8.6 months at the current sales rate."

The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In November 2022 (red column), 46 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 54 thousand homes were sold in November.

The all-time high for November was 86 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for November was 20 thousand in 2010.

This was above expectations, however sales in the three previous months were revised down. I'll have more later today.