by Calculated Risk on 12/23/2022 08:36:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November:

Personal income increased $80.1 billion (0.4 percent) in November, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $68.6 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $19.8 billion (0.1 percent).

The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Real DPI increased 0.3 percent in November and real PCE increased less than 0.1 percent; goods decreased 0.6 percent and services increased 0.3 percent.
emphasis added

The November PCE price index increased 5.5 percent year-over-year (YoY), down from 6.1 percent YoY in October.

The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 4.7 percent YoY, down from 5.0 percent in October.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through November 2022 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Personal income was above expectations, and the increase in PCE was below expectations.

Inflation was lower than expected.

Using the two-month method to estimate Q4 real PCE growth, real PCE was increasing at a 4.0% annual rate in Q3 2022. (Using the mid-month method, real PCE was increasing at 3.0%)