by Calculated Risk on 2/22/2023 09:45:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January

A brief excerpt:

The big story for January existing home sales was the sharp year-over-year (YoY) decline in sales. Also, active inventory increased sharply YoY, but is still historically low.

This is the final look at local markets in January. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I update these tables throughout each month as additional data is released

First, here is a table comparing the year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) declines in sales this year from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) with the local markets I track. So far, these measures have tracked closely. The NAR reported sales were down 34.4% NSA YoY in January.
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More local data coming in February for activity in January!

Important: Closed sales in January were mostly for contracts signed in November and December. Mortgage rates, according to the Freddie Mac PMMS, decreased to around 6.4% in December and 6.3% in January, so that will likely provide a small boost to closed sales in February.

My early expectation is we will see a somewhat smaller YoY sales decline in February, than in January, due to the decrease in mortgage rates in December and January.

However, in the 2nd half of February, mortgage rates have spiked again, and the MBA purchase index fell to the lowest level since 1995!

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/