by Calculated Risk on 2/22/2023 05:38:00 PM

From WardsAuto: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales, Inventory Continue Upward Climb in February (pay content).  Brief excerpt:

With inventory expected to record big gains by the end of the first quarter, consumers could be on the verge of seeing an easing up in pricing through a combination of greater availability of more affordable vehicles and increased incentives, especially when the industry gets into the spring selling season.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for February (Red).

The Wards forecast of 14.6 million SAAR, would be down 7% from last month, and up 6.5% from a year ago.

Vehicle sales are usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy, far behind housing.  This time vehicle sales have been more suppressed by supply chain issues but have picked up recently.