by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2023 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 5.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 24, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 6 percent from the previous week and was 74 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 44 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“The 30-year fixed rate increased to 6.71 percent last week, the highest rate since November 2022, which drove a 6 percent drop in applications. After a brief revival in application activity in January when mortgage rates dropped down to 6.2 percent, there has now been three straight weeks of declines in applications as mortgage rates have jumped 50 basis points over the past month,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Data on inflation, employment, and economic activity have signaled that inflation may not be cooling as quickly as anticipated, which continues to put upward pressure on rates.”

Added Kan, “Both purchase and refinance applications declined last week, with purchase index at a 28- year low for a second consecutive week. Purchase applications were 44 percent lower than a year ago, as homebuyers again retreat to the sidelines as higher rates crimp affordability. Refinance applications account for less than a third of all applications and remained more than 70 percent behind last year’s pace, as a majority of homeowners are already locked into lower rates.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022.

Other than the lows in Q4 of 2022 and early this year, the refinance index was at the lowest level since the year 2000.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 44% year-over-year unadjusted.  

The purchase index is 24% below the pandemic low and at the lowest level since early 1995!

Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).