by Calculated Risk on 3/23/2023 10:06:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 640 thousand.

The previous three months were revised down.

Sales of new single‐family houses in February 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 640,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.1 percent above the revised January rate of 633,000, but is 19.0 percent below the February 2022 estimate of 790,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales are close to pre-pandemic levels.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply decreased in February to 8.2 months from 8.3 months in January.

The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.

This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of February was 436,000. This represents a supply of 8.2 months at the current sales rate."

Sales were below expectations of 650 thousand SAAR, and sales in the three previous months were revised down. I'll have more later today.