RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 3/15/2023 03:13:00 PM
Wednesday, March 15, 2023
Weather Boosted Employment by About 65,000 in February
The BLS reported 311 thousand non-farm jobs were added in February. During the Winter months, I like to look at the weather impact on the report.
The BLS reported 174 thousand people were employed in non-agriculture industries, with a job, but not at work due to bad weather. The average for February over the previous 10 years was 345 thousand (median 248 thousand), so fewer than normal impacted by bad weather.
The BLS also reported 493 thousand people that are usually full-time employees were working part time in January due to bad weather. The average for February over the previous 10 years was 1.57 million (median was 708 thousand). This series suggests weather positively impacted employment more than usual (boosting seasonally adjusted employment).
The San Francisco Fed estimates Weather-Adjusted Change in Total Nonfarm Employment (monthly change, seasonally adjusted). They use local area weather to estimate the impact on employment. For February, the San Francisco Fed estimated that weather boosted employment by 65 to 95 thousand jobs.
This is the second consecutive month with an employment boost from better than normal weather, and we should expect some negative payback in coming months.
The BLS also reported 493 thousand people that are usually full-time employees were working part time in January due to bad weather. The average for February over the previous 10 years was 1.57 million (median was 708 thousand). This series suggests weather positively impacted employment more than usual (boosting seasonally adjusted employment).
The San Francisco Fed estimates Weather-Adjusted Change in Total Nonfarm Employment (monthly change, seasonally adjusted). They use local area weather to estimate the impact on employment. For February, the San Francisco Fed estimated that weather boosted employment by 65 to 95 thousand jobs.
This is the second consecutive month with an employment boost from better than normal weather, and we should expect some negative payback in coming months.
