by Calculated Risk on 4/29/2023 08:11:00 AM

The key report scheduled for this week is the April employment report.

Other key reports include April vehicle sales, and the March trade balance.

The FOMC meets this week, and the FOMC is expected to raise rates 25bp.

For manufacturing, the April ISM manufacturing index will be released.

----- Monday, May 1st -----
10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for April. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 46.8, up from 46.3 in March.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for March. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in construction spending.

----- Tuesday, May 2nd -----
8:00 AM ET: Corelogic House Price index for March.

10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for March from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings decreased in February to 9.9 million from 10.6 million in January.

The number of job openings (black) were down 14% year-over-year in February.

All day: Light vehicle sales for April. The expectation is for light vehicle sales to be 14.8 million SAAR in April, unchanged from 14.8 million in March (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the sales rate for the previous month.

----- Wednesday, May 3rd -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for April. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 135,000 payroll jobs added in April, down from 145,000 added in March.

10:00 AM: the Q1 2023 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership from the Census Bureau.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for April.   The consensus is for a reading of 51.7, up from 51.2.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The FOMC is expected to raise the Fed Funds rate by 25bp at this meeting and indicate a likely "pause" in June.

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

----- Thursday, May 4th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 243 thousand initial claims, up from 230 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for March from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $63.8 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $70.3 billion in February.

----- Friday, May 5th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for April.   The consensus is for 178,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 3.6%.

There were 236,000 jobs added in March, and the unemployment rate was at 3.5%.

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2022.