by Calculated Risk on 5/11/2023 10:19:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquency Rate in First-Quarter 2023 Declines to Second-Lowest Level in MBA’s Survey

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.56 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the first quarter of 2023, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

The delinquency rate was down 40 basis points from the fourth quarter of 2022 and down 55 basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started in the first quarter rose by 2 basis points to 0.16 percent.

“The mortgage delinquency rate fell to its lowest level for any first quarter since MBA’s survey began in 1979 and was the second lowest quarterly rate overall, just 11 basis points above the survey low in the third quarter of 2022,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “Mortgage delinquencies and the unemployment rate continue to track each other closely, with the unemployment rate in April falling back to the 54-year low of 3.4 percent set in January.”

Added Walsh, “Consistent with the resilient job market, the performance of existing mortgages is exceeding expectations. Across all states, there was an improvement in the first quarter compared to one year ago. Year-over-year delinquencies for all product types – FHA, VA, and conventional – were also down.”.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due.  Overall delinquencies decreased in Q1.

From the MBA:

Compared to last quarter, the seasonally adjusted mortgage delinquency rate decreased for all loans outstanding. By stage, the 30-day delinquency rate decreased 15 basis points to 1.77 percent, the 60-day delinquency rate decreased 11 basis points to 0.55 percent, and the 90-day delinquency bucket decreased 14 basis points to 1.24 percent.

The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the first quarter was 0.57 percent, unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2022 and 4 basis points higher than one year ago.

The sharp increase in 2020 in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent, but not reported to the credit bureaus).

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased slightly year-over-year in Q1 with the end of the foreclosure moratoriums but are still historically low.