by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2023 09:22:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June

A brief excerpt:

Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June I reviewed home inventory and sales.
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Most measures of house prices have shown an increase in prices over the last few months, and a key question is off prices will soften again later this year.

Other measures of house prices indicated year-over-year slowing or further declines in April. The NAR reported median prices were down 1.7% YoY in April. Black Knight reported prices were up 1.0% YoY in April, and Freddie Mac reported house prices were up 0.3% YoY in April. Here is a comparison of year-over-year change in the FMHPI, median house prices from the NAR, and the Case-Shiller National index.

The FMHPI and the NAR median prices appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. The median price was down YoY in April, and based on the recent trend, the FMHPI will be negative year-over-year in May - and Case-Shiller will follow within a few months.

In real terms, the Case-Shiller National index is down 4.2% from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Historically it takes a number of years for real prices to return to the previous peak, see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/