by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2023 10:46:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 4.4% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.9% below recent peak

Excerpt:

It has been over 17 years since the bubble peak. In the May Case-Shiller house price index released Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 64% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 8% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).  The composite 20, in real terms, is 2% below the bubble peak.

People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms.  As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be $358,000 today adjusted for inflation (79% increase).  That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices.

The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index.

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