by Calculated Risk on 8/17/2023 04:46:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July; 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in July; California Sales Down 9% YoY

A brief excerpt:

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million in July, down 1.0% from June’s preliminary pace and down 16.8% from last July’s seasonally adjusted pace.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 1.9% from last July.

And a table of July sales.

In July, sales in these markets were down 14.2%. In June, these same markets were down 16.1% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This is a smaller YoY decline NSA than in June for these markets. Note that there were the same number of selling days each year in July 2022 and July 2023.

A key factor in the smaller YoY decline was that sales were steadily declining last year due to higher mortgage rates - and sales in July on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis will likely be close to 4.06 million.

More local markets to come!

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/