by Calculated Risk on 8/22/2023 10:56:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.07 million SAAR in July; Median Prices Increased 1.9% YoY in July

Excerpt:

On prices, the NAR reported:

The median existing-home price for all housing types in July was $406,700, an increase of 1.9% from July 2022 ($399,000). Prices rose in the Northeast, Midwest and South but were unchanged in the West.

Median prices are distorted by the mix (repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices).

The YoY change in the median price peaked at 25.2% in May 2021 and bottomed at down 3.0% in May 2023. Prices are now up 1.9% YoY. Median house prices decreased 0.8% from June to July and are down 1.7% from the peak in June 2022 (NSA).

The median price tends to lead the Case-Shiller index, and this is further evidence that Case-Shiller will likely turn positive year-over-year soon.

Note that closed sales in July were mostly for contracts signed in May and June. Mortgage rates, according to the Freddie Mac PMMS, averaged around 6.4% in May and 6.7% in June. August sales will be mostly for contracts signed in June and July, mortgage rates averaged 6.9% in July, so seasonally adjusted closed sales will likely be less in August compared to July.

The recent surge in mortgage rates over 7% will impact closed sales in September, and it now seems likely that in a few months existing home sales will fall below the previous cycle low of 4.00 million in January 2023.

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