by Calculated Risk on 8/23/2023 10:00:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 714 thousand.

The previous three months were revised down, combined.

Sales of new single‐family houses in July 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 714,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.4 percent above the revised June rate of 684,000 and is 31.5 percent above the July 2022 estimate of 543,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales are at pre-pandemic levels.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply decreased in July to 7.3 months from 7.5 months in June.

The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.

This is above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July was 437,000. This represents a supply of 7.3 months at the current sales rate."

Sales were above expectations of 701 thousand SAAR, however, sales for the three previous months were revised down, combined. I'll have more later today.