by Calculated Risk on 9/26/2023 10:00:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 675 thousand.

The previous three months were revised up, combined.

Sales of new single‐family houses in August 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 675,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 8.7 percent below the revised July rate of 739,000, but is 5.8 percent above the August 2022 estimate of 638,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales are close to pre-pandemic levels.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply increased in August to 7.8 months from 7.0 months in July.

The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.

This is above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 436,000. This represents a supply of 7.8 months at the current sales rate."

Sales were below expectations of 700 thousand SAAR, however, sales for the three previous months were revised up, combined. I'll have more later today.