by Calculated Risk on 10/04/2023 03:45:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: The Second Half “Bear Steepener”: Higher for Longer, a Higher R*, and A Rising Term Premium

A brief excerpt:

NOTE: This is technical and related to these earlier notes (and mortgage rates):

August 18th: Lawler: Is The “Natural” Rate of Interest Back to Pre-Financial Crisis Levels?

August 15th: The "New Normal" Mortgage Rate Range

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Below is a chart showing the Treasury yield curve from 1 to 30 years yesterday compared to the end of each of the previous four months.
...
As the graph and table show, the one-year Treasury yield hasn’t moved much since   middle of the year, while the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields have increased by over 100 basis points.  While the yield curve is still very inverted by historical standards, it is a far cry from the “uber-inversion” of earlier in the year.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/