by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2023 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.8% week-over-week.  This is the latest in the year that inventory was still increasing!

Click on graph for larger image.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of November 3rd, inventory was at 567 thousand (7-day average), compared to 563 thousand the prior week.   

Year-to-date, inventory is up 15.5%.  And inventory is up 39.6% from the seasonal bottom 29 weeks ago.

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

The red line is for 2023.  The black line is for 2019.  Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2021, but below last year and still well below normal levels.

Inventory was down 1.5% compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was down 2.7%), and down 37.1% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 39.4%). 

In 2022, inventory peaked at the end of October (the latest in the year inventory had peaked until this year). I now expect inventory to be up YoY soon.

Inventory is now 4.4% above the same week in 2020 levels (dark blue line).

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.