by Calculated Risk on 11/10/2023 03:39:00 PM

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Third Quarter of 2023

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.62 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2023, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

The delinquency rate was up 25 basis points from the second quarter of 2023 and up 17 basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started in the third quarter rose by 1 basis point to 0.14 percent.

“The national mortgage delinquency rate increased in the third quarter from the record survey low reached in the second quarter of this year, with an uptick in delinquencies across all loan types – conventional, FHA, and VA,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “The increase was driven entirely by a rise in earliest-stage delinquencies – those 30-days and 60-days past due. Later-stage delinquencies – those 90 days or more past due – declined to the lowest level since the first quarter of 2020.”

Added Walsh, “The decline in later-stage delinquencies, along with a foreclosure starts rate of 0.14 percent – which is well below the historical quarterly average of 0.40 percent – suggest that distressed homeowners may be utilizing available loss mitigation options that prevent a foreclosure start. Additionally, accumulated home equity may also be enabling some homeowners to sell their homes well before foreclosure becomes a possibility.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due.  Overall delinquencies increased in Q3.

From the MBA:

Compared to last quarter, the seasonally adjusted mortgage delinquency rate increased for all loans outstanding. By stage, the 30-day delinquency rate increased 28 basis points to 2.03 percent, the 60-day delinquency rate increased 7 basis points to 0.62 percent, and the 90-day delinquency bucket decreased 9 basis points to 0.98 percent.
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The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 0.49 percent, down 4 basis points from the second quarter of 2023 and down 7 basis points lower than one year ago. This is the lowest foreclosure inventory rate since fourth-quarter 2021.

The sharp increase in 2020 in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent, but not reported to the credit bureaus).

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased year-over-year in Q3 even with the end of the foreclosure moratoriums and are historically low.