by Calculated Risk on 12/25/2023 10:48:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.9% week-over-week and is now up 3.9% year-over-year.  Inventory will likely decrease seasonally until the Spring.

Click on graph for larger image.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of December 22nd, inventory was at 529 thousand (7-day average), compared to 539 thousand the prior week.   

Year-to-date, inventory is up 7.5% and will start at a higher level in 2024 than in 2023, but still far below pre-pandemic levels.

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

The red line is for 2023.  The black line is for 2019.  Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2021, but still well below normal levels.

Inventory was up 3.9% compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was up 3.0%), and down 34.2% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 34.4%). 

Back in June, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is closing.

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.