by Calculated Risk on 12/22/2023 08:52:00 AM

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through November 2023.

CPI Shelter was up 6.5% year-over-year in November, down from 6.7% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.

Housing (PCE) was up 6.7% YoY in November, down from 6.9% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

Since asking rents are mostly flat year-over-year, these measures will continue to slow over coming months.

Over the last 6 months (annualized):

PCE Price Index: 2.0%
Core PCE Prices: 1.9%
Core minus Housing: 1.1%