by Calculated Risk on 1/16/2024 08:17:00 AM

Earlier the BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December. The BEA estimates sales of 15.83 million SAAR in December 2023 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 3.3% from the November sales rate, and up 16.8% from December 2022. 

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows annual sales since 1976.

Sales in 2020 were impacted by the pandemic, and then sales rebounded slightly in 2021.  However, sales in 2022 were impacted significantly by supply chain disruptions.

In 2023, the supply issues subsided, and sales increased even with much higher lending rates.

This suggests vehicle sales might increase further in 2024 as rates decline.

The second graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2023 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR).

Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009.  Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all-time high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.

Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."

Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 308 thousand SAAR in May 2020.  

Heavy truck sales were at 450 thousand SAAR in December, down from 478 thousand in November.  

On annual basis, sales in 2023 were at 506 thousand, up 6.4% from 476 thousand in 2022.

Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession.   Sales were decent in December.