by Calculated Risk on 1/25/2024 08:31:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2023 (Advance Estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.9 percent.

The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, private inventory investment, and residential fixed investment (table 2). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both services and goods. Within services, the leading contributors were food services and accommodations as well as health care. Within goods, the leading contributors to the increase were other nondurable goods (led by pharmaceutical products) and recreational goods and vehicles (led by computer software). Within exports, both goods (led by petroleum) and services (led by financial services) increased. The increase in state and local government spending primarily reflected increases in compensation of state and local government employees and investment in structures. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment reflected increases in intellectual property products, structures, and equipment. Within federal government spending, the increase was led by nondefense spending. The increase in inventory investment was led by wholesale trade industries. Within residential fixed investment, the increase reflected an increase in new residential structures that was partly offset by a decrease in brokers' commissions. Within imports, the increase primarily reflected an increase in services (led by travel).

Compared to the third quarter of 2023, the deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected slowdowns in private inventory investment, federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and consumer spending. Imports decelerated.
emphasis added

PCE increased at a 2.8% annual rate, and residential investment increased at a 1.1% rate. The advance Q3 GDP report, with 3.3% annualized increase, was above expectations.

I'll have more later ...