by Calculated Risk on 1/25/2024 10:00:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 664 thousand.

The previous three months were revised up, combined.

Sales of new single‐family houses in December 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 8.0 percent above the revised November rate of 615,000 and is 4.4 percent above the December 2022 estimate of 636,000.

An estimated 668,000 new homes were sold in 2023. This is 4.2 percent above the 2022 figure of 641,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales were close to pre-pandemic levels.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply decreased in December to 8.2 months from 8.8 months in November.

The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.

This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of December was 453,000. This represents a supply of 8.2 months at the current sales rate"

Sales were above expectations of 650 thousand SAAR, and sales for the three previous months were revised up, combined. I'll have more later today.