by Calculated Risk on 2/01/2024 10:00:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.1% in January, up from 47.1% in December. The employment index was at 47.1%, down from 47.5% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 52.5%, up from 47.0%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 49.1% January 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in January for the 15th consecutive month following one month of “unchanged” status (a PMI® reading of 50 percent) and 28 months of growth prior to that, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49.1 percent in January, up 2 percentage points from the seasonally adjusted 47.1 percent recorded in December. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 45th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index moved into expansion territory at 52.5 percent, 5.5 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted figure of 47 percent recorded in December. The January reading of the Production Index (50.4 percent) is 0.5 percentage point higher than December’s seasonally adjusted figure of 49.9 percent. The Prices Index registered 52.9 percent, up 7.7 percentage points compared to the reading of 45.2 percent in December. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 44.7 percent, 0.6 percentage point lower than the 45.3 percent recorded in December. The Employment Index registered 47.1 percent, down 0.4 percentage point from December’s seasonally adjusted figure of 47.5 percent.
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted slightly in January.  This was above the consensus forecast.