by Calculated Risk on 2/01/2024 05:05:00 PM

Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Soften in January After December's Strength (pay site).

Causes for the month’s weaker results could have included some payback for December’s surge. However, affordability and inventory likely played roles, as availability remains well below historically normal levels for a market running at a 15-million-plus annualized rate, and at the same time interest rates for financing purchases are at long-time highs, the mix on dealer lots is weighted toward higher priced vehicles.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for January (red).

Sales in January (15.0 million SAAR) were down 5.2% from December, and down 0.7% from January 2023.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Vehicle sales are usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy, although far behind housing.  This time vehicle sales were more suppressed by supply chain issues and are up year-over-year.

Sales in January were below the consensus forecast.