by Calculated Risk on 3/25/2024 10:00:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 662 thousand.

The previous three months were revised up slightly.

Sales of new single‐family houses in February 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 662,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.3 percent below the revised January rate of 664,000, but is 5.9 percent above the February 2023 estimate of 625,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales were close to pre-pandemic levels.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply increased in February to 8.4 months from 8.3 months in January.

The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.

This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of February was 463,000. This represents a supply of 8.4 months at the current sales rate."

Sales were below expectations of 673 thousand SAAR, however, sales for the three previous months were revised up slightly. I'll have more later today.