by Calculated Risk on 4/24/2024 01:16:00 PM

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.

From the AIA: ABI March 2024: Architecture firm billings retreat further in March

Business conditions at architecture firms softened in March, as the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score declined to 43.6 for the month. This marked the 14th consecutive month of declining billings at firms as inflation, supply chain issues, and other economic challenges continue to affect business. While inquiries into new projects have continued to grow during that period, it has been at a slower pace than in 2021 and 2022. More notably, the value of new signed design contracts was flat in March, which has generally been the trend for the last year and a half. This shows that clients are interested in starting new projects but remain hesitant to sign a contract and officially commit to those projects. However, most firms report that they still have strong project backlogs of 6.6 months, on average, so even with the ongoing soft patch, they still have work in the pipeline.

Architecture firm billings also continued to decline at firms in all regions of the country, and at firms of all specializations in March, just like in February. Regionally, business conditions were softest at firms located in the Midwest and South. By specialization, billings declined faster at firms with a commercial/industrial specialization and remained weak at firms with a multifamily residential specialization. However, firms with an institutional specialization reported billings that were essentially flat, marking the third straight month of that trend.
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The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients.
emphasis added

• Northeast (46.0); Midwest (45.2); South (45.3); West (47.6)

• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (42.9); institutional (49.9); multifamily residential (44.2)

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 43.6 in March, down from 49.5 in February.  Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment in 2024.

Note that multi-family billing turned down in August 2022 and has been negative for twenty consecutive months (with revisions).   This suggests we will see a further weakness in multi-family starts.