by Calculated Risk on 4/26/2024 08:57:00 AM

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through March 2024.

CPI Shelter was up 5.6% year-over-year in March, down from 5.8% in February, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.

Housing (PCE) was up 5.8% YoY in March, down slightly from 5.8% in January, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

Since asking rents are mostly flat year-over-year, these measures will continue to slow over the next year.

The second graph shows PCE prices, Core PCE prices and Core ex-housing over the last 6 months (annualized):

Key measures are slightly above the Fed's target on a 6-month basis.

PCE Price Index: 2.5% (6 month annualized)
Core PCE Prices: 3.0%
Core minus Housing: 2.4%