by Calculated Risk on 5/23/2024 10:00:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 634 thousand.

The previous three months were revised down.

Sales of new single‐family houses in April 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 634,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.7 percent below the revised March rate of 665,000 and is 7.7 percent below the April 2023 estimate of 687,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales were close to pre-pandemic levels.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply increased in April to 9.1 months from 8.5 months in March.

The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.

This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April was 480,000. This represents a supply of 9.1 months at the current sales rate."

Sales were well below expectations of 680 thousand SAAR, and sales for the three previous months were revised down. I'll have more later today.