by Calculated Risk on 7/21/2024 10:16:00 AM

For house prices, probably the key number in the existing home sales report on Tuesday will be months-of-supply.

It is likely month-of-supply will be close to 4 months in the June report, the highest level since the start of the pandemic. In June 2019, months-of-supply peaked for the year at 4.3 months.

As I mentioned in a recent interview with Lance Lambert at ResiClub:

"I expect this measure to continue to increase, and be over 4 months soon – and to be above 2019 levels in a few months. This doesn’t mean national price declines, but it suggests price growth will slow significantly later this year. We might see national price decline with months-of-supply above 5 (as opposed to 6) since most potential sellers have substantial equity and might be willing to sell for a little less."