by Calculated Risk on 7/29/2024 09:58:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in June and a Look Ahead to July Sales

A brief excerpt:

In June, sales in these markets were down 13.1% YoY. Last month, in May, these same markets were down 0.1% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
...
This was a year-over-year decrease NSA for these markets. However, there were two fewer working days in June 2024 compared to June 2023 (19 vs 21), so seasonally adjusted sales were much higher than the NSA data suggests. Note that the NAR reported sales NSA were down 13.4% YoY in June, almost the same as this local data!

July sales will be mostly for contracts signed in May and June, and mortgage rates decreased slightly to an average of 6.92% in June, down from 7.06% in May. My early expectation is we will see existing home sales at or above the same level in July as compared to June, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR).

Note for next month (July sales): There were two more working days in July 2024 compared to July 2023 (22 vs 20), so seasonally adjusted sales will be much lower than the NSA data suggests.

There is much more in the article.