by Calculated Risk on 7/01/2024 10:00:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 48.5% in June, down from 48.7% in May. The employment index was at 49.3%, down from 51.1% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 49.3%, up from 45.4%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 48.5% June 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in June for the third consecutive month and the 19th time in the last 20 months, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.5 percent in June, down 0.2 percentage point from the 48.7 percent recorded in May. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 50th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory, registering 49.3 percent, 3.9 percentage points higher than the 45.4 percent recorded in May. The June reading of the Production Index (48.5 percent) is 1.7 percentage points lower than May’s figure of 50.2 percent. The Prices Index registered 52.1 percent, down 4.9 percentage points compared to the reading of 57 percent in May. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 41.7 percent, down 0.7 percentage point compared to the 42.4 percent recorded in May. The Employment Index registered 49.3 percent, down 1.8 percentage points from May’s figure of 51.1 percent.
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted in June.  This was below the consensus forecast.