by Calculated Risk on 7/07/2024 08:21:00 AM

Note: I covered apartments and offices in the newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q2; Office Vacancy Rate at New Record High

From Moody’s Analytics economists: Apartment Demand Slowly Catching Up, Office Stress Continued to Manifest, Retail Resilient Despite Bankruptcies, And Industrial Cools Down

The Q2 2024 data maintained its familiar trend with the retail vacancy rate holding steady at 10.4%. Both asking and effective rents experienced a marginal increase of 0.2% to $21.79 and $19.07 per square foot respectively. The second quarter consumer spending fell short of expectations: after a 0.2% decline in April, retail sales in May were only up by 0.1%, not meeting the anticipated 0.3% increase. As low-income consumers continued to feel the pinch, those in the middle are now encountering financial challenges while high earners pulled back on luxury item purchases. However, spending has not ground to a halt: consumers plan to travel and attend concerts this summer, indicating a shift in preference towards experiences over goods.

The current trends signal an expectation of relatively subdued construction activity for the rest of the year. In the absence of significant new developments, current shopping and neighborhood centers have taken advantage of companies applying the smaller-yet-smarter model to fill their vacant anchors. This approach involves large retail chains offering a limited selection of their products in more compact locations. The business rationale is to address the decline in revenues by reducing operational costs through lower rental expenses, fewer staff members, and a reduced inventory, culminating in decreased overall overhead and, consequently, higher profit margins. This strategy is helping retail landlords fill vacancies caused by recent bankruptcies and attributing to the stabilized vacancy rate.

This graph shows the strip mall vacancy rate starting in 1980 (prior to 2000 the data is annual). 

Back in the '80s, there was overbuilding in the mall sector even as the vacancy rate was rising. This was due to the very loose commercial lending that led to the S&L crisis.

In the mid-'00s, mall investment picked up as mall builders followed the "roof tops" of the residential boom (more loose lending). This led to the vacancy rate moving higher even before the recession started. Then there was a sharp increase in the vacancy rate during the recession and financial crisis.

Recently the vacancy rate has held steady at a high level as online shopping continues to impact brick and mortar stores.