by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2024 10:44:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July and 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets

A brief excerpt:

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million in July, up 1.8% from June’s preliminary pace but down 2.2% from last July’s seasonally adjusted pace.

Unadjusted sales should show an increase from a year ago, with the SA/NSA difference reflecting the higher number of business days this July compared to last July.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 3.9% from a year earlier.

CR Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release July Existing Home Sales on Thursday, August 22nd at 10 AM ET. The consensus is for 3.90 million SAAR, up from 3.89 million last month.
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In July, sales in these markets were up 3.8% YoY. Last month, in June, these same markets were down 12.8% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were two more working days in July 2024 compared to July 2023 (22 vs 20), so seasonally adjusted sales will be much lower than the NSA data suggests. This is the opposite of what happened in June.

Sales in all of these markets are down compared to July 2019.
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More local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.