by Calculated Risk on 9/06/2024 09:12:00 AM

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was below expectations, and June and July payrolls were revised down by 82,000 combined.   The participation rate and the employment population ratio were unchanged, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.2%.

Construction employment increased 34 thousand and is now 665 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. 

Manufacturing employment decreased 24 thousand and is now 147 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.

Earlier: August Employment Report: 142 thousand Jobs, 4.2% Unemployment Rate

Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation

Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.

The 25 to 54 years old participation rate decreased in August to 83.9% from 84.0% in July.

The 25 to 54 employment population ratio was unchanged at 80.9% from 80.9% the previous month.

Both are above pre-pandemic levels and near the highest level this millennium.

Average Hourly Wages

The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).  

There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.

Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.8% YoY in August.   

Part Time for Economic Reasons

From the BLS report:

"The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.8 million in August. This measure is up from 4.2 million a year earlier. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in August to 4.83 million from 4.57 million in July.  This is above the pre-pandemic levels.

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 7.9% from 7.8% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 1.533 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, essentialy unchanged from 1.535 million the previous month.

This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.174 million, and up from the recent low of 1.050 million.

This is above pre-pandemic levels.

Job Streak

Through August 2024, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 44 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 5th place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).  It appears this streak will survive the annual benchmark revision (that will revise down job growth).

Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks
	Year Ended	Streak, Months
1	2019	100
2	1990	48
3	2007	46
4	1979	45
5	20241	44
6 tie	1943	33
6 tie	1986	33
6 tie	2000	33
9	1967	29
10	1995	25
1Currrent Streak

Summary:

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was below expectations, and June and July payrolls were revised down by 82,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio were unchanged, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.2%.

A weaker than expected report, and the three-month average employment growth has slowed to 116 per month.  The unemployment rate is up from a low of 3.4% in early 2023 to 4.2% in August (although down slightly from July).