by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2024 10:31:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in August and a Look Ahead to September Sales

A brief excerpt:

After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in August.

The big story for August was that existing home sales decreased to 3.86 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) - just above the cycle low of 3.85 million SAAR in October 2023 - and the 36th consecutive month with a year-over-year decline.
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In August, sales in these markets were down 4.5% YoY. The NAR reported sales were down 5.7% year-over-year NSA in August.

Sales in all of these markets are down compared to August 2019.

This was a year-over-year decrease NSA for these markets. However, there was one fewer working day in August 2024 compared to August 2023 (22 vs 23), so seasonally adjusted sales were down less than NSA sales.

September sales will be mostly for contracts signed in July and August, and mortgage rates decreased to an average of 6.50% in August, down from 6.85% in July. My early expectation is we will see existing home sales up year-over-year in September - for the first time in over 3 years!

There is much more in the article.