by Calculated Risk on 9/16/2024 07:01:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Inch Lower to Begin Potentially Wild Week

The new week began on a relatively quiet note in terms of mortgage rate movement and the underlying bond market. ... Traders have quickly shifted back to expecting slightly better odds of a 0.50% rate cut versus the minimum 0.25%. That's not even the important part of the announcement, however. Markets will be more focused on the rate trajectory outlined in the Fed's economic projections as well as the guidance offered in the text of the announcement and Fed Chair Powell's press conference. ... Any time an outcome is guaranteed to surprise about half the market, it's pretty much impossible to avoid volatility. [30 year fixed 6.12%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for August will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in retail sales.

• At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for August. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 77.9%.

• At 10:00 AM, The September NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 40, up from 39 in August. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.